Max Pain
Per-minute time series of Max Pain vs Synthetic Future. Cross-overs and shifts feed the signal engine.Expiry
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How to read this
Max Pain is the strike that minimises total ITM pain to writers if expiry settled here. Acts as a magnet — writers actively defend it as expiry approaches.
Synthetic Future (SF) is the put-call-parity-derived fair forward (= spot + (CE−PE) blended at ATM). The arb-free anchor — Max Pain is the OI-positioning anchor.
The gap SF − MaxPain is the directional reading (same convention as the Seller Tracker page):
- +ve > 10pt → SF above MP → price has broken the pin upward → BULLISH bias; trend-following longs / bull-put spreads align
- -ve < -10pt → SF below MP → price has broken the pin downward → BEARISH bias; trend-following shorts / bear-call spreads align
- |gap| ≤ 10pt → SF at MP → NEUTRAL, range-bound; strangles/iron condors centred here are the natural play
Cross-over events flag a regime switch — SF flipping from one side of MP to the other. Sustained events confirm a held breakout direction. Convergence = equilibrium approaching.
Markers on the chart: circles = MP shift, arrows = SF crossover, squares = convergence. Green = up-direction (bullish), red = down-direction (bearish).